Journal of International Economic Relations and Development Economics

Exchange Rate Dynamics and Household Consumption in Nigeria

Collins Udedi; Amaka Metu , Chris Kalu — Wed, 15 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0100

This study investigated the impact of exchange rate dynamics and final household consumption in Nigeria from 1981-2021. This period covered the most turbulent exchange rate dynamics in Nigeria as well as the periods of two economic recessions within a decade. Theoretical framework underpinning the study was the life cycle hypothesis (LCH) and purchasing power parity (PPP). Final household consumption, disposable income, inflation, nominal exchange rate, nominal interest rate and trade openness were used for the analysis. The collected data were analyzed using both the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) techniques. The findings of the study revealed that nominal exchange rate through transmission channel of inflation and trade openness had long run negative and positive impacts on final household consumption in Nigeria respectively. The study concludes that since the factors causing exchange rate dynamics may be difficult to control, attention should be on curbing its impacts through its transmission channels. Based on the findings, the study recommends an increase in the use of fiscal policy to curb the impact of inflation and to spur the economy into production for export.

A Critical Discourse Analysis of the Acceptance Speech of Prof. Charles Soludo

Orji, Dereck-M. Akachukwu, Muomalu, Ukamaka Cynthia — Wed, 01 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0100

Language in political speech can control and influence political action and audience confidence. This paper critically analyses the acceptance speech of Prof. Charles Soludo, the Governor Anambra State which was delivered after he was announced as the winner of the gubernatorial elections on 10^thNovember, 2021. This paper focuses on examining the linguistic features of the speech in order to determine the ideological position of the politician. The text of the speech is obtained from Premium Times Nigeria. This study adopts Fairclough and Wodak’s Critical Discourse Analysis to analyse his use of language to create identity and solidarity with the people. Our findings reveal that the governor appreciates the efforts of all as his use of pragmatic, grammatical and cohesive devices in the speech portrays hope for peace, security and good governance as he assumed the Office of Governor, Anambra State. The speech has grammatical and cohesive devices that express the ideology of the Governor. In the pronominal analysis, Soludo makes extensively use of “we/our” to denote the ideologies of inclusiveness, openness and communality. He achieved cohesion with his extensive usage of the addictive conjunction ‘and’. He emphasis on these ideologies is seen with his usage of referencing, substitution and parallelism. Our study concludes that Governor Soludo projects a form of charismatic and behooveful leadership. We also conclude that politics plays an important role in our lives because when a good government comes in, everybody will benefit from the good governance.

Impact of Non-Oil Export on Economic Growth in Nigeria

Chisom Okoli, Uju Ezenekwe, Geraldine Nzeribe, Collins Umeghalu — Thu, 09 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0100

Prompted by the worrisome negligence of the non-oil sector by the Nigerian government, despite the sector’s huge potentials, this study attempted to examine the impact of Nigeria’s non-oil exports on real GDP from 1981-2021 using the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test and the CUSUM stability test techniques. The results of the study reveal that there exists a short-run and long-run relationship between the dependent and independent variables in both models. The Engel-Granger (ECM) analysis result revealed that non-oil export has positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria, while the ARDL bound test result revealed that non-oil export terms of trade has negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. The CUSUM stability test shows that non-oil export has positive and stable impact on economic growth, while non-oil exports terms of trade has negative and unstable impact on economic growth in Nigeria. From the results of the study, it was concluded that on the average, non-oil export is a veritable economic tool that could be used in improving Nigeria’s economy if the inherent potentials are optimally harnessed. The study recommends building of strategic bilateral trade agreements with other countries, especially countries that are net importers of Nigeria’s non-oil exports goods.

Determinants of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Nigeria

Victor Ibeto, Uju Ezenekwe, Geraldine Nzeribe, Kenechukwu Okeyika — Sun, 19 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0100

Current exchange rate models hardly beat a random walk in terms of their predictive power. This could be as a result of lumping the time frames of different exchange rate regimes when estimating exchange rate models. This e-study examined the determinants of exchange rate dynamics in Nigeria under the various exchange rate sub-regimes between the periods 1986-2020 using the monetary theory of exchange rate determination and expressing the interest variables in their relative forms rather than their absolute forms. The variables used are naira per dollar exchange rates, relative money supply, relative real gross domestic product, interest rate differential, relative inflation rates, oil price, trade openness and government capital expenditure. While the ARDL technique was employed to estimate the various exchange rate sub-regime models, the structural VAR model was employed to estimate the responses of exchange rates to nominal, demand and supply shocks. The data were sourced from secondary sources including various editions of the CBN statistical bulletin, the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, the U.S Federal Reserve Bank, World Bank Development Indicators and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This e-study revealed that the determinants are similar in terms of their nature on exchange rates across the various exchange rate sub-regimes considered, however there exist striking dissimilarities in terms of their magnitudes on exchange rates across the exchange rate sub-regimes considered. Specifically, the determinants of exchange rate dynamics in Nigeria under the; Second-tier foreign exchange sub-regime are relative real income, relative inflation and trade openness; Wholesale Dutch Auction System are relative inflation and oil price; Interbank Foreign Exchange Market are interest rate differential, relative inflation, oil price and trade openness. Demand and supply shock variables were also found to elicit strong responses from exchange rates overtime. This e-study recommended in addition to the implementation of trade policies that the government should have policies that increase the added value of exports in order to improve the quality of trade openness.